Wednesday, October 5, 2016

A Plate of Matthew Spaghetti

From my aviation days I've learned not to trust the local weathermen and their presentation of the weather.  As a result, I tend to look at the raw data myself.  Until I moved onto a boat, I never looked at hurricane models, but I can completely understand why they are called spaghetti models.

Plot from the http://tropicalatlantic.com website.

With a plate like that, all you need is a little marinara. I guess some of those are what the NWS uses when they come up with these charts.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]
National Weather Service current forecast for Matthew.

No wonder those "uncertainty cones" can get so large.  On the bright side (for us), the forecast is looking a little better.  Feeling sorry for the Bahamas, Florida, and Georgia as well as all of those that have already been hit by this storm.
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousOctober 7, 2016 at 11:07 AM

    Hi Mike,
    Good luck riding out Matthew or brush from Matthew. Are you looking for a marina way up a river or anchoring and tying off from shore trees like they do in mangroves in south? This seems like the first time in a long while to be way north of FL during the hurricane season

    Doug in VT

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    1. Mike BoydOctober 7, 2016 at 9:17 PM

      Marinas here generally don't want boats around for storms (fixed docks, normally little tide). The nearby creek doesn't have a tree lined bank (marsh followed by trees), so it is anchor only. The last several hurricanes or threats of them were aimed north of Florida. Last year we prepared for one in Virginia but it turned away after all prep was done.

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